An idea for age prediction markets
2007-09-15 by julianmorrison
Suppose I want to raise money for anti-aging research. A good tool would a prediction market for longevity. But how to achieve it?
I have an idea: the one-living-person-only repayment contract.
How it works: you sell a promise to pay one named living person ONLY, a fixed sum at a fixed gap into the future (eg: £10 in 10 years). You don’t have to pay it to their estate if they die. The obligation to pay can’t be transferred to any creditor or other long-lived corporate entity. It can only be paid to that one person. Usually, the buyer would be the person named as the recipient.
In effect, the person selling the contract is betting against longevity, and the person buying the contract is betting for it. The interplay sets the market price of the contract at certain time scales. For example, 100-year contracts are likely to be quite cheap right now.
